Palmeiras vs Corinthians• Serie A, Brazil

#20.8:0.24-1FT11/10 · Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo0.8:2.0#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.67BTNX3.85BTN26.25B365Margin at best1.9%Books10Markets87Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 20:03 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.67	3.85	6.10	2.2%
Pinnacle	1.66	3.66	6.24	3.6%
Dafabet	1.64	3.85	5.80	4.2%
1xBet	1.64	3.71	6.13	4.2%
Bet365	1.65	3.50	6.25	5.2%
BetVictor	1.62	3.70	5.75	6.1%
Marathonbet	1.59	3.60	5.95	7.5%
Betfair	1.60	3.50	6.00	7.7%
William Hill	1.62	3.40	5.50	9.3%
SBO	1.58	3.41	4.94	12.9%
Best of all books	1.67	3.85	6.25	1.9%
Average	1.63	3.62	5.87	6.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PalmeirasCorinthians

Last 10#2Table position#162.10Points per game1.0710Form pts · last 500.8Goals for · last 50.80.2Goals against · last 52.050Attack rating5091Defence rating9100Form rating038H2H rating6270Goals model3056Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 10:20 UTC

Palmeiras

5W 4D 1L · goals 13:6 · per match 1.3 for, 0.6 against

15 Oct	A	Fluminense	2-1	W
11 Oct	H	Corinthians	4-1	W
9 Oct	H	Bahia	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Gremio	0-0	D
16 Sep	A	LDU de Quito	2-3	L
12 Sep	H	Sao Paulo	2-0	W
9 Sep	H	LDU de Quito	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	Botafogo	0-0	D
3 Sep	A	Santos	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Mirassol	1-1	D

Corinthians

1W 1D 8L · goals 8:18 · per match 0.8 for, 1.8 against

11 Oct	A	Palmeiras	1-4	L
7 Oct	A	Internacional	1-2	L
20 Sep	H	Fluminense	1-3	L
17 Sep	H	Estudiantes L.P.	0-1	L
13 Sep	A	Flamengo	1-2	L
10 Sep	A	Estudiantes L.P.	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Chapecoense-sc	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	Santos	0-1	L
23 Aug	A	Coritiba	1-2	L
21 Aug	H	Rosario Central	1-0	W

Head to head

15Palmeiras wins

17draws

13Corinthians wins

45 meetings · goals 50:42 · last 10: 2W 4D 4L for Palmeiras

12 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Corinthians0-0Palmeiras
8 Feb 2026Paulista - A1	Paulista - A1	Corinthians0-1Palmeiras
31 Aug 2025Serie A	Serie A	Corinthians1-1Palmeiras
7 Aug 2025Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Palmeiras0-2Corinthians
31 Jul 2025Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Corinthians1-0Palmeiras
12 Apr 2025Serie A	Serie A	Palmeiras2-0Corinthians
28 Mar 2025Paulista - A1	Paulista - A1	Corinthians0-0Palmeiras
16 Mar 2025Paulista - A1	Paulista - A1	Palmeiras0-1Corinthians
6 Feb 2025Paulista - A1	Paulista - A1	Palmeiras1-1Corinthians
4 Nov 2024Serie A	Serie A	Corinthians2-0Palmeiras

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Palmeiras sit 2nd with 63 points from 30 games, while Corinthians are 16th with 32 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58:25	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52:22	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	49:35	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48:37	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	44:36	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46:44	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	41:35	+6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46:45	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38:35	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	38:48	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	43:48	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34:44	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31:38	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33:38	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32:40	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33:48	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	30:61	-31	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg158%1.63X26%3.62216%5.87

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.52 → 1.63 +7.2%X3.97 → 3.62 -8.8%26.41 → 5.87 -8.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.27	1.67	3.9%
1xBet	2.20	1.70	4.3%
Betano	2.20	1.70	4.3%
SBO	2.11	1.74	4.9%
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Betfair	2.25	1.60	6.9%
Marathonbet	2.14	1.66	7.0%
BetVictor	2.10	1.63	9.0%
Best of all books	2.27	1.74	1.5%
Average	2.17	1.68	5.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	2.12	1.67	7.1%
Bet365	2.05	1.70	7.6%
William Hill	2.05	1.70	7.6%
1xBet	2.10	1.66	7.9%
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
BetVictor	2.10	1.65	8.2%
Marathonbet	2.10	1.64	8.6%
Best of all books	2.20	1.70	4.3%
Average	2.10	1.66	7.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Palmeiras 45%Draw 45%Corinthians 10%

The statistical model rated Palmeiras at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Corinthians at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.63 | 3.62 | 5.87, which imply roughly 61.3% for a Palmeiras win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Palmeiras are 2nd (63 pts, 52-22 goals), Corinthians 16th (32 pts, 31-38).

Over their last five matches, Palmeiras averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game; Corinthians averaged 0.8 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Palmeiras or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

Coach: Abel Ferreira

Goalkeeper

1Carlos Miguel

Defence

26Murilo
15G. Gómez
2A. Barboza

Midfield

4A. Giay
8Andreas Pereira
30Lucas Evangelista
22J. Piquerez
11J. Arias
42J. López

Attack

9Vitor Roque

Substitutes (12)

18Maurício
14Marcelo Lomba
32E. Martínez
50Luis Felipe
17Marlon Freitas
10Paulinho
56Arthur
12Khellven
19R. Sosa
48Larson
3Bruno Fuchs
7Felipe Anderson

Corinthians

4-2-3-1

Coach: C. Seedorf

Goalkeeper

1Hugo Souza

Defence

2Matheuzinho
3Gabriel Paulista
13Gustavo Henrique
21Matheus Bidu

Midfield

19A. Carrillo
14Raniele
49Andre
10M. Depay
7Breno

Attack

9Yuri Alberto

Substitutes (12)

11Vitinho
18Pedro Raul
77J. Lingard
5André Ramalho
35Charles
29Allan
56Guilherme Inácio
61Dieguinho
55I. Machado
4João Pedro
51Kauê Camargo
26F. Angileri

Match Statistics

PalmeirasCorinthians

2.68Expected Goals0.77

394Passes accurate314

14Shots insidebox10

8Shots outsidebox2

6Blocked Shots3

11Free Kicks16

8Shots on Goal3

2Goalkeeper Saves5

8Shots off Goal6

2Offsides1

455Total passes376

22Total Shots12

3Yellow Cards4

7Corner Kicks3

17Fouls11

0Red Cards0

55%Ball Possession45%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.63	3.62	5.87

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	2.27	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
1.19	4.23

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.10	1.66

1st half

1	X	2
2.19	2.12	5.96

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.50	8.30	3.09

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.23
1.5	1.36	2.98
2.5	2.17	1.68
3.5	3.99	1.22
4.5	7.97	1.06
5.5	16.0	1.02
6.5	24.8	1.01

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.03	7.40
1	1.05	6.65
1.25	1.18	3.84
1.75	1.45	2.53
2	1.61	2.23
2.25	1.90	1.88
2.75	2.50	1.47
3	2.98	1.36
3.25	3.42	1.23
3.75	4.85	1.11
4	7.00	1.04
4.25	7.40	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.84	1.40
-1.25	2.46	1.52
-1	2.12	1.71
-0.75	1.77	1.99
-0.5	1.61	2.31
-0.25	1.38	2.81

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	10.0	1.01
-3	9.35	1.01
-2.75	7.13	1.06
-2.5	5.68	1.10
-2.25	5.10	1.12
-2	4.63	1.14
-1.75	3.59	1.28
0	1.18	4.35
+0.25	1.14	5.08
+0.5	1.13	5.90
+0.75	1.02	7.70
+1	1.01	9.90
+1.5	1.01	13.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.06	7.70
3.5	1.17	4.70
4.5	1.36	2.97
5.5	1.60	2.27
6.5	2.05	1.72
7.5	2.91	1.37
8.5	4.10	1.21
9.5	5.80	1.12
10.5	7.90	1.06

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.34	3.02
6	1.72	2.05
7	2.53	1.49

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
4.5	1.01	12.5
5.5	1.02	9.75
6.5	1.05	7.27
7.5	1.14	4.72
8.5	1.28	3.25
9.5	1.51	2.37
10.5	1.86	1.85
11.5	2.36	1.52
12.5	3.15	1.30
13.5	4.38	1.16
14.5	6.07	1.08
15.5	8.15	1.05
16.5	9.75	1.03
17.5	11.5	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
9.25	1.42	2.60
9.75	1.55	2.23
10	1.68	2.14
10.25	1.75	1.96
10.75	1.95	1.74
11	2.14	1.68
11.25	2.22	1.57
11.75	2.49	1.42
12.25	2.96	1.33