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Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense• Serie A, Brazil

#201.0:2.21-4FT12/10 · Arena Condá, Chapeco2.2:2.4#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.20B365X3.69PIN21.941XBMargin at best2.5%Books10Markets89Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Oct 12:02 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle4.123.691.923.5%
Dafabet4.103.651.923.9%
1xBet3.983.641.944.1%
Betano4.053.601.905.1%
BetVictor4.003.601.876.3%
Bet3654.203.501.856.4%
Betfair3.903.501.906.8%
Marathonbet3.853.521.887.6%
William Hill3.803.401.859.8%
SBO3.263.081.9315.0%
Best of all books4.203.691.942.5%
Average3.933.521.906.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
Last 10#20Table position#30.62Points per game1.772Form pts · last 581.0Goals for · last 52.22.2Goals against · last 52.431Attack rating6952Defence rating4840Form rating6025H2H rating7535Goals model6537Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 12:50 UTC

Chapecoense-sc

2W 3D 5L · goals 12:21 · per match 1.2 for, 2.1 against

12 OctHAtletico Paranaense1-4L
7 OctAVitoria0-4L
26 SepAAtletico Nacional1-1D
19 SepAAtletico-MG1-1D
12 SepHInternacional1-2L
6 SepACorinthians2-1W
30 AugAGremio1-3L
23 AugHSao Paulo1-0W
16 AugHBahia3-3D
8 AugACoritiba1-2L

Atletico Paranaense

4W 4D 2L · goals 21:20 · per match 2.1 for, 2.0 against

12 OctAChapecoense-sc4-1W
8 OctHAtletico-MG2-2D
20 SepHBahia2-1W
12 SepACoritiba3-3D
6 SepACruzeiro1-3L
30 AugHFluminense3-3D
24 AugABotafogo3-2W
15 AugHRB Bragantino1-1D
9 AugASantos2-0W
6 AugAVitoria0-4L

Head to head

2Chapecoense-sc wins
12draws
5Atletico Paranaense wins

19 meetings · goals 18:24 · last 10: 1W 6D 3L for Chapecoense-sc

12 Apr 2026Serie ASerie AAtletico Paranaense2-0Chapecoense-sc
17 Sep 2025Serie BSerie BChapecoense-sc2-3Atletico Paranaense
9 May 2025Serie BSerie BAtletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense-sc
13 Oct 2021Serie ASerie AChapecoense-sc1-1Atletico Paranaense
27 Jun 2021Serie ASerie AAtletico Paranaense2-2Chapecoense-sc
29 Sep 2019Serie ASerie AAtletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense-SC
5 May 2019Serie ASerie AChapecoense-SC1-1Atletico Paranaense
13 Sep 2018Serie ASerie AChapecoense-sc2-1Atletico Paranaense
15 Apr 2018Serie ASerie AAtletico Paranaense5-1Chapecoense-sc
29 Oct 2017Serie ASerie AAtletico Paranaense0-0Chapecoense-sc

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Chapecoense-sc sit 20th with 18 points from 29 games, while Atletico Paranaense are 3rd with 53 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Flamengo30197458:25+3364
2Palmeiras30189352:22+3063
3Atletico Paranaense30158749:35+1453
4Fluminense30149748:37+1151
5Bahia301310744:36+849
6Cruzeiro301461046:44+248
7Atletico-MG30138941:35+647
8Santos301191046:45+142
9RB Bragantino301171238:35+340
10Sao Paulo301161335:35039
11Coritiba301091138:48-1039
12Vitoria301061433:44-1136
13Botafogo30991243:48-536
14Vasco DA Gama29981236:42-635
15Mirassol30891334:44-1033
16Corinthians30881431:38-732
17Internacional307111233:38-532
18Gremio307101332:40-831
19Remo305101533:48-1525
20Chapecoense-sc29391730:61-3118

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg124%3.93X27%3.52249%1.90

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

9 Oct 00:0112 Oct 14:501 3.93X 3.522 1.90
13.47 → 3.93 +13.3%X3.42 → 3.52 +2.9%22.06 → 1.90 -7.8%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.911.982.9%
Betano1.911.934.2%
1xBet1.901.944.2%
SBO1.841.984.9%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Betfair1.871.906.1%
Marathonbet1.851.897.0%
BetVictor1.811.869.0%
Best of all books1.911.982.9%
Average1.871.935.4%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.732.105.4%
Betano1.722.056.9%
Bet3651.702.057.6%
1xBet1.722.017.9%
William Hill1.751.958.4%
Marathonbet1.721.988.6%
BetVictor1.702.008.8%
Best of all books1.752.104.8%
Average1.722.027.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Chapecoense-sc 10%Draw 45%Atletico Paranaense 45%

The statistical model rated Chapecoense-sc at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico Paranaense at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.93 | 3.52 | 1.90, which imply roughly 28.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Chapecoense-sc are 20th (18 pts, 30-61 goals), Atletico Paranaense 3rd (53 pts, 49-35).

Over their last five matches, Chapecoense-sc averaged 1 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Atletico Paranaense averaged 2.2 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Atletico Paranaense and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Chapecoense-sc

4-2-3-1

Coach: Rafael Lacerda

Goalkeeper

  • 98Anderson

Defence

  • 23Dudu
  • 21Kauan Faria Gomes
  • 4João Paulo
  • 91Bruno Pacheco

Midfield

  • 88Yago Felipe
  • 16Bruno Matias
  • 7Marcinho
  • 10Giovanni Augusto
  • 31Garcez

Attack

  • 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
Substitutes (12)
  • 20Bruno Tubarão
  • 11Y. Bolasie
  • 80Miguel Carvalho
  • 19David Antunes
  • 3Doma
  • 6Mancha
  • 15Rafael Thyere
  • 39Rodrigo
  • 14Gabriel Werner
  • 29F. Rossi
  • 30Matheus Aurélio
  • 55Rosivan Macedo Soares

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

Coach: Odair Hellmann

Goalkeeper

  • 1Mycael

Defence

  • 4Arthur Dias
  • 33J. Aguirre
  • 37L. Esquivel

Midfield

  • 12Gilberto
  • 16Jádson
  • 14Luiz Gustavo
  • 7S. Mendoza
  • 21Leozinho
  • 8João Cruz

Attack

  • 9K. Viveros
Substitutes (12)
  • 47Chiqueti
  • 10B. Zapelli
  • 23Santos
  • 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto
  • 70Renan
  • 27J. Portilla
  • 3Léo
  • 2Gilberto
  • 5Felipinho
  • 53Dudu
  • 26Claudinho
  • 55Bruno Gonçalves Baldini

Match Statistics

Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
1.75Expected Goals1.39
326Passes accurate380
14Shots insidebox8
7Shots outsidebox3
2Blocked Shots2
11Free Kicks17
7Shots on Goal8
4Goalkeeper Saves6
12Shots off Goal1
1Offsides0
373Total passes437
21Total Shots11
2Yellow Cards1
6Corner Kicks7
17Fouls11
0Red Cards0
46%Ball Possession54%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.933.521.90

Double chance

1XX212
1.851.231.28

Draw no bet

12
2.811.39

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.722.02

1st half

1X2
4.282.192.44

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.4511.41.65

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.84
1.51.273.57
2.51.871.93
3.53.141.33
4.56.061.11
5.511.91.03
6.522.51.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.80
11.018.30
1.251.124.70
1.751.293.06
21.422.73
2.251.642.20
2.752.081.72
32.471.50
3.252.701.36
3.753.581.21
44.951.11
4.255.301.09
59.001.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
02.941.39
+0.252.201.62
+0.51.931.89
+0.751.662.10
+11.462.60
+1.251.362.94
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.513.01.01
-1.58.431.02
-1.257.901.02
-17.271.05
-0.754.911.15
-0.53.901.27
-0.253.381.30
+1.51.293.40
+1.751.184.10
+21.095.90
+2.251.086.33
+2.51.076.93
+3.51.0113.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.067.90
2.51.184.45
3.51.402.78
4.51.841.90
5.52.631.46
6.53.601.26
7.55.201.14
8.57.401.07
9.59.751.03
2 more lines
LineOverUnder
41.552.37
52.361.56

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0211.3
5.51.048.50
6.51.105.27
7.51.233.53
8.51.452.52
9.51.761.97
10.52.261.57
11.52.981.33
12.54.051.17
13.55.641.09
14.57.261.04
15.510.11.02
16.511.31.02
15 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.124.15
81.262.92
8.751.492.26
91.562.23
9.251.722.04
9.751.951.80
101.951.80
10.252.191.57
10.752.491.41
112.501.44
11.252.931.30
11.753.331.20
123.251.21
134.301.11
145.451.05