Bahia vs Mirassol• Serie A, Brazil

#51.8:1.61-0FT11/10 · Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador1.4:1.2#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.74DAFX4.29PIN25.00B365Margin at best0.8%Books10Markets95Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 20:03 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.72	4.05	5.00	2.8%
Dafabet	1.71	4.10	4.80	3.7%
Pinnacle	1.68	4.23	4.84	3.8%
1xBet	1.69	4.18	4.74	4.2%
Bet365	1.65	3.90	5.25	5.3%
Betfair	1.67	4.10	4.50	6.5%
BetVictor	1.65	4.00	4.75	6.7%
Marathonbet	1.64	4.05	4.60	7.4%
William Hill	1.67	3.80	4.40	8.9%
SBO	1.62	3.67	4.21	12.7%
Best of all books	1.72	4.23	5.25	0.8%
Average	1.67	4.01	4.71	6.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BahiaMirassol

Last 10#5Table position#151.63Points per game1.109Form pts · last 581.8Goals for · last 51.41.6Goals against · last 51.256Attack rating4443Defence rating5753Form rating4750H2H rating5066Goals model3451Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 13:01 UTC

Bahia

5W 3D 2L · goals 15:11 · per match 1.5 for, 1.1 against

11 Oct	H	Mirassol	1-0	W
9 Oct	A	Palmeiras	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Atletico Paranaense	1-2	L
14 Sep	H	Remo	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	RB Bragantino	3-2	W
30 Aug	H	Internacional	3-2	W
23 Aug	A	Vitoria	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Chapecoense-sc	3-3	D
9 Aug	H	Vasco DA Gama	0-0	D
30 Jul	A	Fluminense	0-0	D

Mirassol

3W 5D 2L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

11 Oct	A	Bahia	0-1	L
7 Oct	A	RB Bragantino	1-1	D
27 Sep	A	Uberlandia	4-0	W
19 Sep	H	Botafogo	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Vitoria	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Coritiba	2-1	W
2 Sep	A	Flamengo	0-2	L
30 Aug	H	Palmeiras	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	Santos	1-1	D
20 Aug	A	LDU de Quito	0-0	D

Head to head

1Bahia wins

1draws

1Mirassol wins

3 meetings · goals 4:7 · last 3: 1W 1D 1L for Bahia

11 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Mirassol1-2Bahia
31 Aug 2025Serie A	Serie A	Mirassol5-1Bahia
13 Apr 2025Serie A	Serie A	Bahia1-1Mirassol

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Bahia sit 5th with 49 points from 30 games, while Mirassol are 15th with 33 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58:25	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52:22	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	49:35	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48:37	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	44:36	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46:44	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	41:35	+6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46:45	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38:35	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	38:48	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	43:48	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34:44	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31:38	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33:38	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32:40	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33:48	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	30:61	-31	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg156%1.67X24%4.01220%4.71

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.67 → 1.68 +0.6%X3.92 → 3.97 +1.3%24.77 → 4.67 -2.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	1.65	2.30	4.1%
Pinnacle	1.63	2.34	4.1%
1xBet	1.66	2.28	4.1%
SBO	1.63	2.26	5.6%
Bet365	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.22	6.8%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.58	2.19	9.0%
Best of all books	1.66	2.34	3.0%
Average	1.62	2.27	5.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.62	2.22	6.8%
William Hill	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Bet365	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.62	2.17	7.8%
BetVictor	1.60	2.20	8.0%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.14	8.5%
Best of all books	1.67	2.25	4.3%
Average	1.62	2.18	7.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Bahia 35%Draw 35%Mirassol 30%

The statistical model rated Bahia at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Mirassol at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.67 | 4.01 | 4.71, which imply roughly 59.9% for a Bahia win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Bahia are 5th (49 pts, 44-36 goals), Mirassol 15th (33 pts, 34-44).

Over their last five matches, Bahia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Mirassol averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Bahia or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Bahia

4-3-3

Coach: Rogério Ceni

Goalkeeper

1Ronaldo

Defence

44Marcos Victor
33David Duarte
3Marco Moreno
46Luciano Juba

Midfield

6Jean Lucas
8Caio Alexandre
11Rodrigo Nestor

Attack

99C. Olivera
9A. Véliz
16Erick Pulga

Substitutes (12)

14Erick
31Roman Gomez
66Zé Guilherme
17G. Herrera
18Lautaro López
23M. Sanabria
4Kanu
27Everaldo
7Ademir
12Willian José
10Éverton Ribeiro
15M. Araújo

Mirassol

5-4-1

Coach: Rafael Guanaes

Goalkeeper

22Walter

Defence

32Igor Formiga
77Alesson
2Lucas Oliveira
3Willian Machado
6Reinaldo

Midfield

19Gustavo Silva
27Denilson
25Neto Moura
10Chico

Attack

30Bruno Santos

Substitutes (12)

80Wallisson
99Zé Roberto
7Shaylon
12Victor Luís
96Carlos Eduardo
20Daniel Borges
44Gabriel
90Thomazella
17Fernandinho
95Edson
9André Luís
33Eduardo

Match Statistics

BahiaMirassol

3.22Expected Goals1.89

456Passes accurate402

12Shots insidebox8

4Shots outsidebox2

2Blocked Shots3

13Free Kicks11

2Shots on Goal2

2Goalkeeper Saves1

12Shots off Goal5

1Offsides1

510Total passes457

16Total Shots10

1Yellow Cards4

6Corner Kicks2

13Fouls16

0Red Cards0

53%Ball Possession47%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.67	4.01	4.71

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.17	2.18	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
1.28	3.42

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.62	2.18

1st half

1	X	2
2.14	2.40	4.65

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.52	15.8	2.58

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	13.1
1.5	1.17	4.54
2.5	1.62	2.27
3.5	2.48	1.49
4.5	4.51	1.18
5.5	8.25	1.05
6.5	16.0	1.02
7.5	29.0	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	9.80
1.25	1.07	5.95
1.75	1.19	3.85
2	1.28	3.37
2.25	1.47	2.61
2.75	1.76	2.02
3	1.99	1.78
3.25	2.22	1.58
3.75	2.88	1.32
4	3.72	1.20
4.25	4.06	1.17
4.75	5.45	1.08
5	7.60	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.77	1.43
-1.25	2.40	1.52
-1	2.13	1.69
-0.75	1.81	1.96
-0.5	1.65	2.23
-0.25	1.44	2.60

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.45	1.02
-3	8.75	1.03
-2.75	6.47	1.07
-2.5	5.06	1.13
-2.25	4.65	1.14
-2	4.25	1.17
-1.75	3.42	1.31
0	1.26	3.49
+0.25	1.21	4.00
+0.5	1.18	4.65
+0.75	1.09	5.78
+1	1.01	8.70
+1.5	1.02	9.03

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.04	9.00
2.5	1.14	5.10
3.5	1.34	3.07
4.5	1.74	2.02
5.5	2.36	1.55
6.5	3.20	1.32
7.5	4.65	1.17
8.5	6.70	1.09
9.5	9.00	1.04

2 more lines

Line	Over	Under
4	1.46	2.62
5	2.10	1.69

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	12.1
6.5	1.04	8.20
7.5	1.11	5.15
8.5	1.22	3.61
9.5	1.42	2.63
10.5	1.70	2.04
11.5	2.10	1.65
12.5	2.70	1.39
13.5	3.60	1.22
14.5	4.72	1.13
15.5	6.19	1.07
16.5	9.00	1.04
17.5	11.0	1.02
18.5	12.5	1.01

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.06	5.27
8	1.11	4.27
9	1.23	3.10
9.25	1.32	2.86
9.75	1.42	2.46
10	1.49	2.39
10.25	1.60	2.15
10.75	1.77	1.89
11	1.93	1.84
11.25	2.00	1.69
11.75	2.22	1.51
12	2.38	1.49
12.25	2.58	1.38
13	2.87	1.27
14	3.77	1.15
15	4.82	1.08