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Atletico-MG vs Santos• Serie A, Brazil

#71.4:1.22-1FT11/10 · Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta2.2:1.4#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.21PINX3.54PIN23.34PINMargin at best3.4%Books10Markets92Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 16:04 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.213.543.343.4%
1xBet2.203.543.284.2%
Dafabet2.203.503.304.3%
Betano2.183.453.354.7%
Bet3652.203.303.306.1%
BetVictor2.153.503.206.3%
Marathonbet2.133.443.187.5%
Betfair2.103.403.208.3%
William Hill2.103.303.1010.2%
SBO2.143.142.9013.1%
Best of all books2.213.543.353.3%
Average2.163.413.216.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico-MGSantos
Last 10#7Table position#81.57Points per game1.4011Form pts · last 571.4Goals for · last 52.21.2Goals against · last 51.439Attack rating6154Defence rating4638Form rating6229H2H rating7153Goals model4743Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 10:50 UTC

Atletico-MG

6W 2D 2L · goals 18:12 · per match 1.8 for, 1.2 against

14 OctHAtletico Torque3-0W
11 OctHSantos2-1W
8 OctAAtletico Paranaense2-2D
3 OctHRB Bragantino1-0W
19 SepHChapecoense-sc1-1D
16 SepHSantos4-2W
12 SepHFluminense3-1W
9 SepASantos0-2L
5 SepASao Paulo0-2L
2 SepHCruzeiro2-1W

Santos

6W 2D 2L · goals 17:13 · per match 1.7 for, 1.3 against

11 OctAAtletico-MG1-2L
8 OctHFlamengo2-2D
2 OctASao Paulo2-1W
19 SepARemo2-1W
16 SepAAtletico-MG2-4L
13 SepHCruzeiro2-1W
9 SepHAtletico-MG2-0W
6 SepAInternacional3-2W
3 SepHPalmeiras0-0D
30 AugACorinthians1-0W

Head to head

14Atletico-MG wins
7draws
14Santos wins

35 meetings · goals 47:51 · last 10: 4W 3D 3L for Atletico-MG

16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL SudamericanaAtletico-MG4-2Santos
9 Sep 2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL SudamericanaSantos2-0Atletico-MG
11 Apr 2026Serie ASerie ASantos1-0Atletico-MG
14 Sep 2025Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG1-1Santos
17 Apr 2025Serie ASerie ASantos2-0Atletico-MG
27 Aug 2023Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG2-0Santos
23 Apr 2023Serie ASerie ASantos0-0Atletico-MG
6 Oct 2022Serie ASerie ASantos1-2Atletico-MG
11 Jun 2022Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG1-1Santos
13 Oct 2021Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG3-1Santos

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Atletico-MG sit 7th with 47 points from 30 games, while Santos are 8th with 42 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Flamengo30197458:25+3364
2Palmeiras30189352:22+3063
3Atletico Paranaense30158749:35+1453
4Fluminense30149748:37+1151
5Bahia301310744:36+849
6Cruzeiro301461046:44+248
7Atletico-MG30138941:35+647
8Santos301191046:45+142
9RB Bragantino301171238:35+340
10Sao Paulo301161335:35039
11Coritiba301091138:48-1039
12Vitoria301061433:44-1136
13Botafogo30991243:48-536
14Vasco DA Gama29981236:42-635
15Mirassol30891334:44-1033
16Corinthians30881431:38-732
17Internacional307111233:38-532
18Gremio307101332:40-831
19Remo305101533:48-1525
20Chapecoense-sc29391730:61-3118

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg143%2.17X28%3.41229%3.22

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

8 Oct 00:0211 Oct 08:401 2.16X 3.432 3.20
11.99 → 2.16 +8.5%X3.45 → 3.43 -0.6%23.68 → 3.20 -13.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.832.063.2%
Betano1.852.004.1%
1xBet1.832.024.1%
SBO1.812.034.5%
Bet3651.802.005.6%
Marathonbet1.781.976.9%
Betfair1.751.958.4%
BetVictor1.751.939.0%
Best of all books1.852.062.6%
Average1.801.995.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.672.127.1%
William Hill1.652.157.1%
Bet3651.622.207.2%
Betfair1.602.208.0%
1xBet1.632.148.1%
BetVictor1.622.158.2%
Marathonbet1.632.118.7%
Best of all books1.672.205.3%
Average1.632.157.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico-MG 10%Draw 45%Santos 45%

The statistical model rated Atletico-MG at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Santos at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.17 | 3.41 | 3.22, which imply roughly 29.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Atletico-MG are 7th (47 pts, 41-35 goals), Santos 8th (42 pts, 46-45).

Over their last five matches, Atletico-MG averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Santos averaged 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Santos.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Coach: E. Domínguez

Goalkeeper

  • 1Gabriel Delfim

Defence

  • 2Natanael
  • 3Léo Duarte
  • 14Vitor Hugo
  • 36K. Pascini

Midfield

  • 21A. Franco
  • 5Alexsander
  • 17Igor Gomes
  • 30Victor Hugo
  • 15K. Castaño

Attack

  • 18T. Borbas
Substitutes (12)
  • 19Reinier
  • 39Mamady Cisse
  • 40Vitão
  • 53Pedro Lemos
  • 6Renan Lodi
  • 27A. Minda
  • 92Dudu
  • 31Robert
  • 23A. Preciado
  • 13Lyanco
  • 8Maycon
  • 29Caua

Santos

4-2-3-1

Coach: Cuca

Goalkeeper

  • 1Diógenes

Defence

  • 23Rodinei
  • 4Lucas Veríssimo
  • 15Willian Arão
  • 31G. Escobar

Midfield

  • 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
  • 28C. Oliva
  • 8Gabriel Bontempo
  • 32B. Rollheiser
  • 7Everton

Attack

  • 9Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes (1)
  • 22Á. Barreal

Match Statistics

Atletico-MGSantos
1.49Expected Goals1.14
482Passes accurate479
18Shots insidebox5
3Shots outsidebox5
4Blocked Shots2
12Free Kicks10
5Shots on Goal3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
12Shots off Goal5
1Offsides3
548Total passes553
21Total Shots10
3Yellow Cards5
12Corner Kicks3
10Fouls12
0Red Cards0
58%Ball Possession42%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.163.413.22

Double chance

1XX212
1.321.671.28

Draw no bet

12
1.582.29

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.632.15

1st half

1X2
2.682.203.67

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.7811.92.20

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.2
1.51.243.79
2.51.802.00
3.52.981.36
4.55.751.11
5.510.61.04
6.519.01.01
7.541.0–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.90
11.018.90
1.251.114.95
1.751.273.21
21.372.90
2.251.582.31
2.751.981.76
32.341.55
3.252.591.44
3.753.421.23
44.601.13
4.254.951.11
4.756.971.05
58.401.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-13.171.32
-0.752.481.49
-0.52.141.71
-0.251.871.92
01.582.35
+0.251.412.71
14 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.513.01.01
-2.58.571.03
-2.257.501.03
-27.201.03
-1.755.051.13
-1.53.921.21
-1.253.561.25
+0.51.353.29
+0.751.213.98
+11.105.67
+1.251.086.16
+1.51.076.63
+1.751.018.60
+2.51.0212.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.058.25
2.51.174.70
3.51.372.95
4.51.742.03
5.52.491.50
6.53.501.28
7.55.101.15
8.57.201.07
9.59.751.03
3 more lines
LineOverUnder
41.482.56
52.191.65
63.071.32

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0213.5
5.51.029.50
6.51.086.04
7.51.164.25
8.51.312.95
9.51.562.23
10.51.961.77
11.52.501.46
12.53.351.25
13.54.511.15
14.56.081.08
15.58.751.04
16.510.81.03
17.512.01.01
15 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.075.02
81.163.62
8.751.312.86
91.352.70
9.251.432.42
9.751.612.12
101.742.02
10.251.841.90
10.752.061.71
112.171.62
11.252.291.49
11.752.651.36
122.701.35
133.451.18
144.491.09