Santos vs Flamengo• Serie A, Brazil

#82.0:1.022:30Today · Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos2.0:0.4#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.51PINX4.00PIN21.87DAFMargin at best0.6%Books10Markets98Rating40 · 60Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 20:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	4.40	3.95	1.83	2.7%
Pinnacle	4.51	4.00	1.78	3.4%
Dafabet	4.30	3.70	1.87	3.8%
1xBet	4.28	3.92	1.81	4.1%
Bet365	4.33	3.90	1.75	5.9%
BetVictor	4.33	3.90	1.73	6.5%
Betfair	4.20	3.80	1.75	7.3%
Marathonbet	4.15	3.80	1.75	7.6%
William Hill	4.20	3.60	1.75	8.7%
SBO	3.48	3.23	1.82	14.6%
Best of all books	4.51	4.00	1.87	0.6%
Average	4.22	3.78	1.78	6.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SantosFlamengo

Last 10#8Table position#11.46Points per game2.1412Form pts · last 5132.0Goals for · last 52.01.0Goals against · last 50.450Attack rating5029Defence rating7150Form rating5040H2H rating6029Goals model7140Overall rating60

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 19:31 UTC

Santos

6W 2D 2L · goals 15:13 · per match 1.5 for, 1.3 against

2 Oct	A	Sao Paulo	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Remo	2-1	W
16 Sep	A	Atletico-MG	2-4	L
13 Sep	H	Cruzeiro	2-1	W
9 Sep	H	Atletico-MG	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Internacional	3-2	W
3 Sep	H	Palmeiras	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Corinthians	1-0	W
27 Aug	A	Palmeiras	0-3	L
23 Aug	H	Mirassol	1-1	D

Flamengo

8W 1D 1L · goals 21:7 · per match 2.1 for, 0.7 against

20 Sep	H	RB Bragantino	2-1	W
18 Sep	H	Independiente del Valle	1-1	D
13 Sep	H	Corinthians	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	Independiente del Valle	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Remo	1-0	W
2 Sep	H	Mirassol	2-0	W
30 Aug	H	Botafogo	3-0	W
22 Aug	A	Cruzeiro	1-2	L
20 Aug	H	Cruzeiro	2-1	W
16 Aug	A	Mirassol	5-1	W

Head to head

9Santos wins

8draws

15Flamengo wins

32 meetings · goals 38:47 · last 10: 3W 0D 7L for Santos

5 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo3-1Santos
9 Nov 2025Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo3-2Santos
16 Jul 2025Serie A	Serie A	Santos1-0Flamengo
1 Nov 2023Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo1-2Santos
25 Jun 2023Serie A	Serie A	Santos2-3Flamengo
26 Oct 2022Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo3-2Santos
2 Jul 2022Serie A	Serie A	Santos1-2Flamengo
6 Dec 2021Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo0-1Santos
28 Aug 2021Serie A	Serie A	Santos0-4Flamengo
13 Dec 2020Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo4-1Santos

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 8 Oct 04:51 UTC

In the Serie A table, Santos sit 8th with 41 points from 28 games, while Flamengo are 1st with 60 points from 28.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55:23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47:21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43:32	+11	49
4	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	+4	48
5	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44:36	+8	48
6	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43:35	+8	46
7	Atletico-MG	28	12	7	9	37:32	+5	43
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43:41	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37:43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	10	6	13	33:34	-1	36
12	Vitoria	29	10	6	13	32:42	-10	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	9	7	12	36:42	-6	34
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32:37	-5	31
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30
19	Remo	29	5	9	15	33:48	-15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg122%4.22X25%3.78253%1.78

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.02 → 4.22 +5.0%X3.62 → 3.78 +4.4%21.82 → 1.78 -2.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.63	2.35	3.9%
Betano	1.67	2.27	3.9%
1xBet	1.67	2.25	4.3%
SBO	1.74	2.08	5.5%
Bet365	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.19	7.0%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.59	2.17	9.0%
Best of all books	1.74	2.35	0.0%
Average	1.64	2.23	5.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
William Hill	1.60	2.20	8.0%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.59	2.21	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.59	2.18	8.8%
Best of all books	1.62	2.30	5.2%
Average	1.59	2.23	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Santos 10%Draw 45%Flamengo 45%

The statistical model rates Santos at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Flamengo at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.22 | 3.78 | 1.78, which imply roughly 26.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Santos are 8th (41 pts, 43-41 goals), Flamengo 1st (60 pts, 55-23).

Over their last five matches, Santos averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Flamengo averaged 2 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Flamengo.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Santos

4-2-3-1

Coach: Cuca

Goalkeeper

1Diógenes

Defence

23Rodinei
4Lucas Veríssimo
15Willian Arão
31G. Escobar

Midfield

26C. Oliva
8Gabriel Bontempo
22Á. Barreal
48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
11Philippe Coutinho

Attack

9Gabriel Barbosa

Substitutes (12)

18Igor Vinicius
25Gabriel Menino
34João Paulo
5João Schmidt
45Lima
14Luan Peres
30M. Terceros
10Neymar
81S. Pierri
32B. Rollheiser
33Rony
16Thaciano

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Goalkeeper

1A. Rossi

Defence

22Emerson Royal
13Danilo
4Léo Pereira
26Alex Sandro

Midfield

5E. Pulgar
21Jorginho
15J. Carrascal
11Lucas Paquetá
16Samuel Lino

Attack

9Pedro

Substitutes (12)

51Daniel Sales
44Vitão
14A. Valencia
19G. Plata
8Saúl
7Luiz Araújo
77Johnny Góes
49Dyogo
18N. de la Cruz
42Andrew
27Bruno Henrique
30J. Freitas

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.22	3.78	1.78

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.00	1.21	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
3.16	1.32

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.59	2.23

1st half

1	X	2
4.35	2.30	2.29

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.52	14.0	1.57

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	12.3
1.5	1.18	4.48
2.5	1.64	2.23
3.5	2.52	1.48
4.5	4.53	1.17
5.5	8.38	1.05
6.5	17.0	1.02
7.5	34.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.88
1	1.02	9.15
1.25	1.08	5.65
1.75	1.19	3.75
2	1.29	3.33
2.25	1.49	2.58
2.75	1.84	1.95
3	1.99	1.76
3.25	2.31	1.57
3.75	2.83	1.33
4	3.58	1.21
4.25	3.94	1.17
4.75	5.25	1.09
5	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.40	1.53
+0.5	2.06	1.76
+0.75	1.82	1.99
+1	1.59	2.31
+1.25	1.47	2.65
+1.5	1.37	3.00

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.23	1.03
-1	7.30	1.03
-0.75	5.18	1.12
-0.5	4.27	1.23
-0.25	3.60	1.25
0	3.17	1.31
+1.75	1.27	3.49
+2	1.15	4.62
+2.25	1.13	5.05
+2.5	1.11	5.56
+2.75	1.05	6.86
+3	1.01	9.60
+3.5	1.03	10.5

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.04	9.00
2.5	1.14	5.20
3.5	1.33	3.15
4.5	1.70	2.07
5.5	2.25	1.60
6.5	2.91	1.37
7.5	4.40	1.19
8.5	6.30	1.10
9.5	8.50	1.05

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
4	1.37	2.91
5	2.00	1.79
6	2.98	1.35

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	12.5
4.5	1.02	10.5
5.5	1.05	7.77
6.5	1.12	5.13
7.5	1.27	3.35
8.5	1.51	2.39
9.5	1.89	1.83
10.5	2.40	1.50
11.5	3.30	1.27
12.5	4.68	1.14
13.5	6.73	1.07
14.5	7.97	1.03
15.5	11.1	1.02
16.5	12.5	1.01

17 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.05	5.57
7	1.12	4.09
7.75	1.27	2.90
8	1.37	2.70
8.25	1.37	2.73
8.75	1.50	2.34
9	1.69	2.10
9.25	1.70	2.03
9.75	1.89	1.79
10	2.01	1.71
10.25	2.16	1.60
10.75	2.46	1.43
11	2.57	1.39
11.25	2.90	1.33
12	3.30	1.20
13	4.37	1.10
14	5.52	1.05