Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama• Serie A, Brazil

#120.8:1.623:30Today · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro2.2:1.4#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.13PINX3.68PIN22.33DAFMargin at best2.0%Books10Markets87Rating46 · 54 levelExp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Oct 20:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.12	3.68	2.27	3.3%
Dafabet	3.05	3.65	2.27	4.2%
1xBet	3.06	3.63	2.27	4.3%
Betano	3.05	3.60	2.27	4.6%
Bet365	3.10	3.60	2.20	5.5%
BetVictor	3.00	3.60	2.20	6.6%
Betfair	3.00	3.50	2.20	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.97	3.52	2.20	7.5%
William Hill	2.90	3.40	2.20	9.3%
SBO	2.62	3.13	2.32	13.2%
Best of all books	3.12	3.68	2.32	2.3%
Average	2.99	3.53	2.24	6.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BotafogoVasco DA Gama

Last 10#12Table position#161.25Points per game1.155Form pts · last 5100.8Goals for · last 52.21.6Goals against · last 51.427Attack rating7347Defence rating5336Form rating6450H2H rating5062Goals model3846Overall rating54

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 18:51 UTC

Botafogo

2W 3D 5L · goals 9:19 · per match 0.9 for, 1.9 against

19 Sep	A	Mirassol	0-2	L
16 Sep	H	Gremio	3-2	W
12 Sep	H	RB Bragantino	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Palmeiras	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Flamengo	0-3	L
24 Aug	H	Atletico Paranaense	2-3	L
21 Aug	H	Cienciano	1-0	W
16 Aug	A	Vitoria	0-1	L
14 Aug	A	Cienciano	1-6	L
9 Aug	H	Fluminense	1-1	D

Vasco DA Gama

7W 1D 2L · goals 20:8 · per match 2.0 for, 0.8 against

19 Sep	H	Coritiba	5-0	W
15 Sep	H	Santa Fe	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Gremio	2-1	W
8 Sep	A	Santa Fe	0-0	D
6 Sep	A	Fluminense	0-1	L
3 Sep	A	Vitoria	2-0	W
30 Aug	H	Cruzeiro	3-1	W
27 Aug	H	Vitoria	1-0	W
23 Aug	A	Palmeiras	1-4	L
20 Aug	A	Olimpia	4-1	W

Head to head

16Botafogo wins

9draws

12Vasco DA Gama wins

37 meetings · goals 50:38 · last 10: 4W 3D 3L for Botafogo

5 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Vasco DA Gama1-2Botafogo
8 Feb 2026Carioca - 1	Carioca - 1	Vasco DA Gama2-0Botafogo
5 Nov 2025Serie A	Serie A	Botafogo3-0Vasco DA Gama
12 Sep 2025Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Botafogo1-1Vasco DA Gama
28 Aug 2025Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Vasco DA Gama1-1Botafogo
12 Jul 2025Serie A	Serie A	Vasco DA Gama0-2Botafogo
23 Feb 2025Carioca - 1	Carioca - 1	Vasco DA Gama1-0Botafogo
6 Nov 2024Serie A	Serie A	Botafogo3-0Vasco DA Gama
29 Jun 2024Serie A	Serie A	Vasco DA Gama1-1Botafogo
18 Feb 2024Carioca - 1	Carioca - 1	Botafogo2-4Vasco DA Gama

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 7 Oct 02:21 UTC

In the Serie A table, Botafogo sit 12th with 35 points from 28 games, while Vasco DA Gama are 16th with 31 points from 27.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55:23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47:21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43:32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44:36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43:35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42:40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	28	12	7	9	37:32	+5	43
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43:41	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37:43	-6	38
10	Sao Paulo	28	10	6	12	33:32	+1	36
11	RB Bragantino	28	10	6	12	33:32	+1	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41:45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28:42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29:32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33:42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34:41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30:38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30:36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32:47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29:53	-24	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg132%2.98X27%3.52242%2.25

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.67 → 2.98 +11.6%X3.37 → 3.52 +4.5%22.48 → 2.25 -9.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	1.65	2.30	4.1%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.30	4.1%
1xBet	1.66	2.28	4.1%
SBO	1.76	2.08	4.9%
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Betfair	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.22	6.8%
BetVictor	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Best of all books	1.76	2.30	0.3%
Average	1.66	2.21	5.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.45	6.2%
Betano	1.52	2.42	7.1%
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.50	2.42	8.0%
William Hill	1.55	2.30	8.0%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Best of all books	1.55	2.45	5.3%
Average	1.52	2.39	7.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Botafogo 10%Draw 45%Vasco DA Gama 45%

The statistical model rates Botafogo at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Vasco DA Gama at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.98 | 3.52 | 2.25, which imply roughly 28.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Botafogo are 12th (35 pts, 41-45 goals), Vasco DA Gama 16th (31 pts, 34-41).

Over their last five matches, Botafogo averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Vasco DA Gama averaged 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.99	3.53	2.24

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.62	1.37	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
2.17	1.64

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.52	2.39

1st half

1	X	2
3.40	2.29	2.73

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.08	13.8	1.81

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	12.0
1.5	1.18	4.49
2.5	1.66	2.21
3.5	2.56	1.48
4.5	4.63	1.17
5.5	8.93	1.04
6.5	17.0	1.02
7.5	34.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.00
1.25	1.06	6.11
1.75	1.18	3.93
2	1.27	3.40
2.25	1.48	2.61
2.75	1.83	1.97
3	2.04	1.73
3.25	2.31	1.56
3.75	2.88	1.32
4	3.74	1.19
4.25	4.10	1.16
4.75	5.55	1.08
5	7.80	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.93	1.40
-0.25	2.55	1.50
0	2.22	1.64
+0.25	1.82	1.96
+0.5	1.65	2.24
+0.75	1.46	2.60

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	10.9	1.02
-2	10.0	1.01
-1.75	7.65	1.05
-1.5	5.98	1.09
-1.25	5.58	1.10
-1	5.07	1.14
-0.75	3.59	1.27
+1	1.30	3.32
+1.25	1.24	3.67
+1.5	1.19	4.00
+1.75	1.12	5.18
+2	1.03	7.60
+2.5	1.02	8.50

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.09	6.50
3.5	1.23	3.95
4.5	1.45	2.62
5.5	1.80	1.94
6.5	2.58	1.46
7.5	3.40	1.29
8.5	4.80	1.16
9.5	6.70	1.09
10.5	9.00	1.04

2 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.60	2.27
6	2.32	1.57

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
4.5	1.01	12.5
5.5	1.02	10.8
6.5	1.07	6.26
7.5	1.15	4.28
8.5	1.31	3.01
9.5	1.56	2.24
10.5	1.94	1.80
11.5	2.45	1.47
12.5	3.22	1.27
13.5	4.41	1.15
14.5	5.67	1.09
15.5	8.00	1.05
16.5	10.3	1.03
17.5	12.0	1.02

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.07	4.89
8	1.18	3.49
8.75	1.34	2.72
9	1.40	2.63
9.25	1.47	2.31
9.75	1.65	2.05
10	1.75	1.99
10.25	1.89	1.85
10.75	2.14	1.66
11	2.10	1.69
11.25	2.38	1.45
11.75	2.77	1.34
12	2.80	1.33
12.25	2.79	1.28
13	3.57	1.17
14	4.65	1.09