Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG• Serie A, Brazil

#32.4:2.423:00Today · Arena da Baixada, Curitiba1.4:1.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.161XBX3.40B36523.90PINMargin at best1.3%Books10Markets90Rating46 · 55Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 20:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.13	3.28	3.86	3.3%
Dafabet	2.14	3.35	3.65	4.0%
1xBet	2.16	3.22	3.74	4.1%
Betano	2.12	3.30	3.65	4.9%
Bet365	2.05	3.40	3.70	5.2%
BetVictor	2.05	3.40	3.50	6.8%
Marathonbet	2.09	3.12	3.62	7.5%
Betfair	2.05	3.10	3.70	8.1%
William Hill	2.05	3.25	3.40	9.0%
SBO	2.08	2.95	3.04	14.9%
Best of all books	2.16	3.40	3.86	1.6%
Average	2.09	3.24	3.59	6.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico-MG

Last 10#3Table position#71.75Points per game1.548Form pts · last 5102.4Goals for · last 51.42.4Goals against · last 51.063Attack rating3729Defence rating7144Form rating5629H2H rating7168Goals model3246Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 19:11 UTC

Atletico Paranaense

4W 4D 2L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

20 Sep	H	Bahia	2-1	W
12 Sep	A	Coritiba	3-3	D
6 Sep	A	Cruzeiro	1-3	L
30 Aug	H	Fluminense	3-3	D
24 Aug	A	Botafogo	3-2	W
15 Aug	H	RB Bragantino	1-1	D
9 Aug	A	Santos	2-0	W
6 Aug	A	Vitoria	0-4	L
4 Aug	H	Vitoria	2-0	W
30 Jul	A	Corinthians	0-0	D

Atletico-MG

5W 3D 2L · goals 14:11 · per match 1.4 for, 1.1 against

3 Oct	H	RB Bragantino	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Chapecoense-sc	1-1	D
16 Sep	H	Santos	4-2	W
12 Sep	H	Fluminense	3-1	W
9 Sep	A	Santos	0-2	L
5 Sep	A	Sao Paulo	0-2	L
2 Sep	H	Cruzeiro	2-1	W
29 Aug	H	Vitoria	2-1	W
26 Aug	A	Cruzeiro	1-1	D
22 Aug	A	Internacional	0-0	D

Head to head

13Atletico Paranaense wins

2draws

18Atletico-MG wins

33 meetings · goals 29:43 · last 10: 3W 1D 6L for Atletico Paranaense

5 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Atletico-MG2-1Atletico Paranaense
8 Dec 2024Serie A	Serie A	Atletico-MG1-0Atletico Paranaense
16 Nov 2024Serie A	Serie A	Atletico Paranaense1-0Atletico-MG
2 Sep 2023Serie A	Serie A	Atletico Paranaense1-1Atletico-MG
23 May 2023CONMEBOL Libertadores	CONMEBOL Libertadores	Atletico-MG2-1Atletico Paranaense
30 Apr 2023Serie A	Serie A	Atletico-MG2-1Atletico Paranaense
19 Apr 2023CONMEBOL Libertadores	CONMEBOL Libertadores	Atletico Paranaense2-1Atletico-MG
7 Aug 2022Serie A	Serie A	Atletico-MG2-3Atletico Paranaense
17 Apr 2022Serie A	Serie A	Atletico Paranaense0-1Atletico-MG
16 Dec 2021Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Atletico Paranaense1-2Atletico-MG

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 8 Oct 04:51 UTC

In the Serie A table, Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd with 49 points from 28 games, while Atletico-MG are 7th with 43 points from 28.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55:23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47:21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43:32	+11	49
4	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	+4	48
5	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44:36	+8	48
6	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43:35	+8	46
7	Atletico-MG	28	12	7	9	37:32	+5	43
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43:41	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37:43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	10	6	13	33:34	-1	36
12	Vitoria	29	10	6	13	32:42	-10	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	9	7	12	36:42	-6	34
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32:37	-5	31
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30
19	Remo	29	5	9	15	33:48	-15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg145%2.10X29%3.21226%3.60

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.04 → 2.10 +2.9%X3.20 → 3.21 +0.3%23.68 → 3.60 -2.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.05	1.85	2.8%
1xBet	2.04	1.81	4.3%
Betano	2.05	1.80	4.3%
SBO	1.99	1.83	4.9%
Bet365	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Betfair	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Marathonbet	1.99	1.76	7.1%
BetVictor	1.92	1.75	9.2%
Best of all books	2.05	1.85	2.8%
Average	2.00	1.80	5.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.10	5.4%
Bet365	1.80	1.95	6.8%
William Hill	1.80	1.95	6.8%
Betano	1.78	1.95	7.5%
1xBet	1.78	1.93	8.0%
BetVictor	1.75	1.95	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.78	1.90	8.8%
Best of all books	1.80	2.10	3.2%
Average	1.77	1.96	7.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Paranaense 10%Draw 45%Atletico-MG 45%

The statistical model rates Atletico Paranaense at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico-MG at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.10 | 3.21 | 3.60, which imply roughly 31.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Atletico Paranaense are 3rd (49 pts, 43-32 goals), Atletico-MG 7th (43 pts, 37-32).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Paranaense averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Atletico-MG averaged 1.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico-MG.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.09	3.24	3.59

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.71	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.46	2.53

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.77	1.96

1st half

1	X	2
2.64	2.09	4.13

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.76	8.40	2.42

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.52
1.5	1.31	3.27
2.5	2.01	1.80
3.5	3.43	1.28
4.5	6.86	1.08
5.5	13.8	1.03
6.5	24.8	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.04	6.80
1	1.06	6.30
1.25	1.17	3.98
1.75	1.40	2.80
2	1.50	2.45
2.25	1.76	2.04
2.75	2.28	1.61
3	2.74	1.41
3.25	3.01	1.33
3.75	3.98	1.17
4	5.40	1.09
4.25	5.75	1.07
5	10.5	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.05	1.34
-0.75	2.37	1.54
-0.5	2.07	1.76
-0.25	1.77	2.03
0	1.49	2.58
+0.25	1.35	3.06

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	13.0	1.01
-2.5	8.10	1.03
-2.25	7.10	1.04
-2	6.75	1.04
-1.75	4.73	1.14
-1.5	3.78	1.22
-1.25	3.46	1.28
+0.5	1.29	3.64
+0.75	1.17	4.54
+1	1.07	6.60
+1.25	1.06	6.90
+1.5	1.04	7.70
+1.75	1.01	8.90

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.05	8.50
2.5	1.16	4.75
3.5	1.35	3.06
4.5	1.76	2.01
5.5	2.31	1.57
6.5	3.40	1.29
7.5	4.90	1.15
8.5	7.00	1.08
9.5	9.50	1.04

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
4	1.44	2.69
5	2.09	1.70
6	3.13	1.32

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
4.5	1.02	13.5
5.5	1.03	9.00
6.5	1.07	6.47
7.5	1.17	4.22
8.5	1.34	2.93
9.5	1.61	2.17
10.5	2.01	1.73
11.5	2.63	1.42
12.5	3.57	1.24
13.5	5.01	1.13
14.5	6.90	1.06
15.5	8.75	1.04
16.5	10.5	1.03
17.5	12.5	1.01

15 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.08	4.67
8	1.20	3.32
8.75	1.34	2.78
9	1.43	2.53
9.25	1.50	2.39
9.75	1.64	2.07
10	1.80	1.97
10.25	1.86	1.84
10.75	2.10	1.64
11	2.26	1.54
11.25	2.41	1.49
11.75	2.74	1.35
12	2.85	1.27
13	3.77	1.15
14	4.87	1.07